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Simulate yearly tile loss
*sam*
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As we discussed at the last meeting, I have made a system for simulating different year-end tile loss scenarios. As it turns out, this was easiest to write as part of the website, so therefore we can all play with it.

If you click on any camp on the map, you'll see a 'Simulate Tile Loss' button. Then you enter the loss factor you want to simulate. (This is simulated for the whole map, not just the camp you clicked). You can click 'Go' multiple times to see different random effects using the same loss factor.

A tile's chance of being lost is related to its accumulated slow-CR dropoff. This is taken as a probability (e.g. 0.85 meaning there's an 85% chance of the tile being kept and not reverting to neutral), but what we're trying to determine is how best to use this number. To do this, I'm planning to use a power function, and the 'loss factor' you enter is used as the exponent in this. If you enter 1.0 then the 0.85 stays as 0.85.. if you enter 0.5 it would become 0.92; if you enter 5.0 it would become 0.44.. and so on.

Hopefully this makes sense. I want to figure out the best value for this 'loss factor'. Something in the region of 3 or 4 looks good to me. It means that a camp can be lucky and have a string of connected tiles which will lead to rapid expansion next season, or unlucky and have gaps which will slow down expansion. This season-to-season change should keep things dynamic on the map, and mean every year gives a slightly different challenge to pvp camps.. which I really like.
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marshal vet deathrce1 paintladder combat1 wv ped1 cont slay2013

Posted Aug 1, 2020, 10:21 am Last edited Aug 1, 2020, 11:06 am by *sam*
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Seems a bit harsh chief!

(So I clicked the button about 20 times to get this screenshot for propaganda purposes, it may or may not be representative of the average roll, it also may or may not be how my CR is deployed bill :cyclops:)
https://puu.sh/GdfwO/576c57113a.png

Seems pretty alright to me, would be a real bummer if it shuts down fights for a month tho. We'd be back to weeks of krak vs vault again  :rolleyes:

I can't recall, was some bonuses moving around just a suggestion or probably happening as well?
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vet wv zom gateautumn deathrceL1 elmsautumn pvp1 pvp2 sssc raceL1 e2g combatL1 santa1 pvp3 gwextrav ww circuit32,18,0

Posted Aug 1, 2020, 10:49 am Last edited Aug 1, 2020, 11:22 am by FireFly
*sam*
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It seems harsh at first.. but remember, you don't lose the tiles that you kept but which you are initially unconnected to. When you fill in the gap to them, you can expand from them the next cycle. In most cases bad luck will only slow you down by 1 or 2 cycles.

In your pic, for example, the Vault is the only one that's really done badly.
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marshal vet deathrce1 paintladder combat1 wv ped1 cont slay2013

Posted Aug 1, 2020, 10:52 am Last edited Aug 1, 2020, 10:56 am by *sam*
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:) I think it makes sense to have to re-invest to hold your tiles. Great job Sam.
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Posted Aug 1, 2020, 11:03 am
Djihani
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Dunno, I think it would feel more realistic if border tiles had a bigger chance of going neutral and distance to camp mattered but I hear that shaking up the map thinking of keeping it random.
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Posted Aug 1, 2020, 11:04 am
*sam*
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Djihani said:
Dunno, I think it would feel more realistic if border tiles had a bigger chance of going neutral and distance to camp mattered but I hear that shaking up the map thinking of keeping it random.


Distance to camp *does* matter, via each tile's accumulated CR dropoff.
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Posted Aug 1, 2020, 11:06 am
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Nah it looks pretty alright for a first run to me sam, not saying harsh isn't good!
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Posted Aug 1, 2020, 11:14 am
Djihani
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*sam* said:
Djihani said:
Dunno, I think it would feel more realistic if border tiles had a bigger chance of going neutral and distance to camp mattered but I hear that shaking up the map thinking of keeping it random.


Distance to camp *does* matter, via each tile's accumulated CR dropoff.


Ah right, I read it as the tiles own factor. Accumulated is cool.
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Posted Aug 1, 2020, 11:17 am
*sam*
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Djihani said:
*sam* said:
Djihani said:
Dunno, I think it would feel more realistic if border tiles had a bigger chance of going neutral and distance to camp mattered but I hear that shaking up the map thinking of keeping it random.


Distance to camp *does* matter, via each tile's accumulated CR dropoff.


Ah right, I read it as the tiles own factor. Accumulated is cool.


The word 'accumulated' wasn't there in my post; I've added it now.. sorry.
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Posted Aug 1, 2020, 11:31 am
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Ive played around with this a little bit. I think the best "range" would be something around 1.0. All of the work to get where we are at, to lose so much, is just exhausting to even think about. Its becomes more of a grind than it already is. At levels 3-4, its enough of a game changer that I would assume you could lose 25% of pvp camps. There are approximately 22 Pvp camps, and realistically, about 6 are actively Pvping. So by my estimates this would drop these numbers to 17 open camps and 4 actively Pvping. If thats what your looking for, then pull the trigger.

Also seems that some camps are particularly biased due to their locations and surroundings more than others.

Just my 2 cents.
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Posted Aug 1, 2020, 8:18 pm
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1 makes no difference to anyone's borders at all.

at 1.8 Joels borders lost hexes (after filling in free hexes) in on one out of 20 tests (we were cut in half 40% of the time).

at 2+ it really screaws the map up in random ways.

It is not the right methodology is my conclusion. It needs to lose more hexes on borders and fewer internal ones.

we also need to make hexes cost something to own.. all towns, villages and factories should consume CR not add it to represent policing and control.
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vet wv zom pvp4 cont community deathrceL1 marshal pvp3 pvp2

Posted Aug 1, 2020, 9:13 pm Last edited Aug 1, 2020, 9:13 pm by *goat starer*
Djihani
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Maybe one setting of governance? Heavy policing costs CR, keeps your lands safe, low policing increases chance of rebellion but costs less cr.
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Posted Aug 1, 2020, 9:31 pm
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I would certainly bow out at 3.0+
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Posted Aug 1, 2020, 9:49 pm
*Joskney*
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at 2+ it really screaws the map up in random ways.

It is not the right methodology is my conclusion. It needs to lose more hexes on borders and fewer internal ones.

we also need to make hexes cost something to own.. all towns, villages and factories should consume CR not add it to represent policing and control.


I agree with this.



SO, then it begs, what EXACTLY do each of us want out of this?  WHY do small/northern camp players bother? What do they get and would a level 2 or/up to a level 3 yearly reset kick them into doing fast land grabs that otherwise they would say "Oh well, Longo has it already" (Nothing personal, just using Longo as he is the big North.) 

I can run both my camps, make everything my hermit heart wants and I make millions each game year.  And the millions are not based on what my camps produce. 

As my BL Tiny PvP camp has a MR42, with 6 total mechanics, I relatively gain nothing and lose anything being in camp wars.  My GW Medium non-PvP camp, I can run at a 80-90 MR with no other player mechs and one-two scouts towards it keep my fame at a level I can run 2 factories at all times. 

So camp wars for my camps, becomes chance to fight other players, not really a camp bonus.  It is nice not to have no pirate attacks, any maybe the random thing, but nothing I don't already have any need.
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Posted Aug 2, 2020, 5:36 am Last edited Aug 2, 2020, 5:51 am by *Joskney*
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I ran a few simulations as well. Judgement from not to many tiles to too many tiles, the sweet spot seems to be 2.0 for a fair average. (I wouldn't recommend going any higher). It really does show how the luck factor can help how fast you can regain your borders.
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Posted Aug 2, 2020, 5:40 am Last edited Aug 2, 2020, 5:44 am by *The X Man*
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make a rating for each camp, those camps that play hug your neibor and never attack anyone should get a higher score say 8, those that fight get lower, or start the next year at say 8 and for each week you have a fight without the auto win it goes down a point so after a year you fought every other week it goes down 6. or mybe have camp be able to choose what tiles cant go neutral more tiles they have means you get to pick more tiles that cant go neutral.
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Posted Aug 2, 2020, 8:35 am Last edited Aug 2, 2020, 8:53 am by darthspanky
*sam*
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1. The random factor is absolutely important. Anyone saying it 'screws with the maps in random ways' as a negative is entirely missing the point. The random factor will, year to year, hand an advantage to one camp or another - this is great - the last thing I want is an unchanging situation.

You've been handed a lucky roll? - perfect!- this is your year to make a big push against your enemy.

You've had an unlucky roll? - well, it's time to tighten your borders and play defensive for a bit.

Either way, it gives a varying challenge year to year and gives the underdog a chance every now and then. This is far better than forcing everything to stay the same. If you don't agree, I suggest you're failing to see past your own self-interest.

We need to make space for new camps to open up to pvp with some hope of survival. We need to allow a new camp, over a period of 3-4 seasons, to become as strong as an established camp.  This system offers both.


2. Those maps might look scary at first, due to the sheer number of tiles lost, but it's far less bad than it looks.  In most simulation runs, it would take most camps 2 cycles to fill in all the gaps.  I don't accept an argument that it's too much work - we're talking about a few minutes of CR deployment effort, twice in the game year.

However..
  I can certainly change things so that tiles are lost on the borders and not internally.  This is mostly just cosmetic, but if it makes people happier that's fine.


One good point made above is that some camps are consistently harder hit than others. Although the accumulated-CR-dropoff based approach would make sense if we had a clean playing field, it doesn't make sense (from a game balance perspective) given an already established map. That's a fair point.

I will make a new version of this simulation based on distance from camp rather than accumulated CR dropoff. I will make it drop tiles from your borders only. It will retain randomness so that camps can get good years or bad years.
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Posted Aug 2, 2020, 9:06 am Last edited Aug 2, 2020, 9:11 am by *sam*
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I must be in a tiny minority that thought 4-5 was the most intersting :cyclops:
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Posted Aug 2, 2020, 9:23 am
*sam*
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*Ninesticks* said:
I must be in a tiny minority that thought 4-5 was the most intersting  :cyclops:


Not at all, it's entirely consistent:  the larger your current camp region is, the lower you see as 'reasonable' for the magic number.  ;-)
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Posted Aug 2, 2020, 9:29 am
*sam*
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*Joskney* said:

As my BL Tiny PvP camp has a MR42, with 6 total mechanics, I relatively gain nothing and lose anything being in camp wars.  My GW Medium non-PvP camp, I can run at a 80-90 MR with no other player mechs and one-two scouts towards it keep my fame at a level I can run 2 factories at all times. 

So camp wars for my camps, becomes chance to fight other players, not really a camp bonus.  It is nice not to have no pirate attacks, any maybe the random thing, but nothing I don't already have any need.


So, the tile perks are simply not enough to make it useful?
Would it be good to hold a 'small camps only' meeting? The meetings I have held so far have focused on the big players. or is there even enough interest ?
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Posted Aug 2, 2020, 9:37 am
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